Recent events have underscored a troubling reality: foreign threats to the upcoming US Election are escalating. From hacking a presidential candidate’s phone to fabricating videos depicting ballot destruction in Pennsylvania, the stakes have never been higher. National security officials have warned that adversaries may incite violent protests after Election Day, highlighting a growing concern over foreign influence in American politics.
These alarming developments reveal the intensified efforts by Russia, China, and Iran to interfere in the electoral process ahead of next month’s pivotal elections. Intelligence officials and security analysts had anticipated this surge in activity, prompting a more proactive response from officials, technology companies, and private researchers to expose these threats.
While officials maintain that the US election system is secure enough to prevent foreign nations from altering results in a way that could impact the outcome, the tactics employed by authoritarian adversaries—such as disinformation campaigns and cyberespionage—are designed to undermine public trust and create discord among voters.
Key Insights as the US Election Approaches
1. Russia: The Foremost Threat
Russia stands out as the most active and sophisticated player in the realm of US Election interference. Utilizing fake websites, state-controlled media, and unwitting American citizens, Russia disseminates misleading and polarizing content aimed at eroding confidence in the electoral process.
The Kremlin’s disinformation campaign capitalizes on divisive issues like immigration, crime, and economic challenges. This strategy not only seeks to weaken the US internally but also aims to diminish support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression while enhancing Russia’s alliances with countries like China, North Korea, and Iran.
Intelligence officials have determined that Russia favors former President Donald Trump and employs disinformation—sometimes generated by artificial intelligence—to tarnish the reputation of his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s past praise for Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggestions to cut funding for Ukraine, and repeated criticisms of NATO have fueled these narratives.
In a particularly bold move, Russia produced a video falsely accusing Harris of causing paralysis to a woman in a car accident years prior. Another fabricated video targeted Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is Harris’s running mate. Recently, the FBI confirmed Moscow’s involvement in creating a video that falsely depicted the destruction of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, a claim quickly debunked by local election officials.
Moreover, Russia has attempted to financially incentivize American influencers to propagate narratives favorable to the Kremlin. Last month, US authorities accused two employees of Russian state media of funneling $10 million to a Tennessee-based company to generate pro-Russian content. Some right-wing influencers received payments without realizing their work was being supported by Russian funds.
Officials predict that Russia’s campaign will not conclude on Election Day. Instead, they anticipate that Russia will exploit any claims of election irregularities to undermine the integrity of the results. A recently declassified intelligence memo suggested that Russia may also encourage violent protests post-election.
“Putin’s goal is to sow chaos, division, and polarization within our society,” stated Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia and a Stanford University educator.
Russia has dismissed allegations of interference in the US Election, and a message left with its embassy in Washington went unanswered over the weekend.
2. Iran’s Bold Cyber Operations
Iran has emerged as a particularly audacious player in foreign interference efforts this year. It has been accused of hacking into the communications of Trump campaign associates and offering these stolen materials to media outlets and Democratic organizations in hopes of generating damaging stories that could hinder the Republican’s campaign. Emails promising compromising information were sent to associates of President Joe Biden’s campaign, though there is no evidence that anyone engaged with them.
Last month, the Justice Department charged three Iranian hackers, who remain at large, for conducting a years-long operation targeting a wide range of victims.
U.S. officials characterize these hacking efforts as part of a larger strategy to meddle in an election that Iran views as crucial. Iran has been vocal about its opposition to the Trump administration, which withdrew from the nuclear agreement, reimposed sanctions, and ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani—actions that prompted Tehran’s leaders to vow retaliation.
In addition to cyber operations, U.S. authorities have repeatedly expressed concerns about the potential for Iran to enact violent measures on American soil against Trump or his administration members. In 2022, charges were brought against individuals involved in a foiled Iranian plot to kill Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, and a Pakistani man with ties to Iran was charged this year in a plot to carry out political assassinations in the U.S., potentially targeting Trump.
The intelligence memo also indicates that Iranian leaders may attempt to incite violent protests following the election. Officials have noted Iran’s covert funding and support of protests in the U.S. related to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Iranian officials have denied allegations of seeking to influence the US Election, with Iran’s UN mission asserting, “Iran neither has any motive nor intent to interfere in the U.S. election.”
3. A Neutral Stance from China?
US intelligence officials believe that China is adopting a more neutral stance in the current electoral landscape, focusing its efforts on down-ballot races and targeting candidates from both political parties based on their stances on issues critical to Beijing, including support for Taiwan.
However, the Chinese government has a long-standing history of conducting sophisticated hacking operations that extend beyond just election interference. These operations encompass a broad spectrum of Western industries and sectors.
“From city council candidates to the presidency, they seek access,” remarked Adam Darrah, a former CIA political analyst now serving as the vice president of intelligence at the cybersecurity firm ZeroFox, which tracks foreign online threats.
Recently, news surfaced that Chinese hackers, as part of a broader espionage initiative, had targeted cellphones belonging to Trump, his running mate JD Vance, and members of Harris’s campaign. It remains unclear what data, if any, was compromised.
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A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington stated they were unfamiliar with the specifics of these incidents and could not comment, asserting that China regularly falls victim to cyberattacks and opposes such activities.
Are These Tactics New?
Not at all. Foreign adversaries, including those implicated in current meddling efforts, have a history of attempting to influence previous elections with varying degrees of success.
The US government, criticized for its failure to address the extent of Russian interference during the 2016 election, has taken significant steps this year to proactively identify and address foreign threats. This is part of a broader effort to mitigate their impact and reassure Americans of the election’s security.
In 2016, Russian military intelligence officers hacked into the email accounts of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman and the Democratic Party, releasing tens of thousands of communications to bolster Trump’s successful presidential campaign. Russia also engaged in a widespread yet covert social media trolling campaign that aimed to create division on contentious social issues, undermining Clinton’s presidential bid.
This trend continued into the 2020 election cycle, when a Ukrainian lawmaker—identified by US officials as an “active Russian agent”—released audio recordings of Democrat Joe Biden, who was then running for president. That same year, Iranian hackers were accused of disseminating emails falsely attributed to the far-right group The Proud Boys, designed to harm Trump’s candidacy.
As the US Election approaches, the threat of foreign interference looms larger than ever. With nations like Russia, China, and Iran adopting increasingly aggressive tactics to disrupt the electoral process, officials are ramping up their defenses. Understanding these threats and the responses being implemented is crucial to safeguarding the integrity of the US election.
